On Sunday, the 2024 MLB Draft commenced with the first two rounds, marking the beginning of an exciting journey for many aspiring baseball stars. At the historic Cowtown Coliseum in Fort Worth, Texas, the names of the first 74 of the 615 total selections echoed through the venue. Here, we highlight the top five picks from this initial round of selections.

1. Guardians 

Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State. Bazzana had an outstanding season, posting a .416/.475/.937 batting line with 28 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and an impressive 40 more walks than strikeouts. He possesses above-average strength and speed, though his arm strength confines him to second base. Bazzana excels in strike zone command and has a remarkable ability to consistently make solid contact. His character and work ethic are highly praised, despite concerns about his physical ceiling. This raises an interesting question: What matters more for a player’s long-term success, physical potential or the intangible qualities of growth and development?

2. Reds

Chase Burns, P, Wake Forest: Burns consistently averaged nearly two strikeouts per inning, utilizing a top-tier arsenal that includes an upper-90s fastball with rising action, a devastating slider, and a curveball. (He also occasionally mixes in a changeup.) His delivery evokes memories of Matt Garza, but with more control: Burns walked fewer than 8% of the batters he faced in college, including under 6% in ACC play this year. With the potential to be an outstanding starter, Burns might be the first pitcher from this draft class to make his major league debut.

3. Rockies

Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia: Entering the season as a second-tier prospect, Condon needed a standout spring to secure a top-10 draft spot, and he certainly delivered. Leading the NCAA in batting average, slugging percentage, and home runs (setting a new BBCOR Era record with 37), Condon showcased his impressive skills. He also proved his potential at third base, convincing many that it’s his ideal position. Standing at 6-foot-6, Condon is known for his immense strength and consistent power-hitting. Additionally, he demonstrated excellent plate discipline, chasing pitches outside the zone less frequently than peers like Braden Montgomery and Jac Caglianone, while his batted-ball profile fits the current lift-and-pull trend.

4. Athletics

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest: After overcoming an early slump and a shoulder injury, Kurtz made a strong comeback with 14 home runs in a 10-game stretch to kick off April. By the end of the season, he led the NCAA in walks, both in percentage and total, drawing a walk in 30% of his plate appearances (for comparison, Barry Bonds had a 32% walk rate in 2002). Kurtz boasts well-above-average power and plate discipline, and he makes solid contact when he swings. However, there are a few concerns. Some evaluators worry that his extreme selectiveness may cause him to miss hittable pitches, although it’s generally easier to teach a hitter to be more aggressive than to improve their discipline. The more significant issue is his position: as a collegiate first baseman, history is not in his favor. The last first-round pick from that position to have a successful career was C.J. Cron in 2011.

5. White Socks

Hagen Smith, P, Arkansas: Smith captured national attention in February by striking out 17 batters over six innings against Bazzana and the Oregon State Beavers. He maintained his dominance throughout the season, averaging nearly two strikeouts per inning. Smith’s success is largely due to his high-quality fastball-slider combination and the deception created by his release point. Utilizing a low arm slot and positioning himself on the far first-base side of the rubber, he generates challenging angles for hitters.

Where are all the high schoolers?

Sunday night made history as the first eight players drafted were all college athletes, marking the longest absence of high school players at the start of an MLB Draft since its inception in 1965. The streak ended when the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Mississippi shortstop Konnor Griffin at No. 9, followed by shortstop Bryce Rainer, who was picked by Detroit at No. 11. These two were the only high school players chosen within the top 15 picks.

The only similar instance being in 2020, a pandemic year when most high school seasons were halted before they could even begin, resulting in the first high school player being picked eighth. Historically, high school players have often been selected early, including four times in the past decade when a high schooler was the No. 1 overall pick. In 2022, high schoolers made up four of the first five picks and six of the top 15. Since 2000, a high school player has been chosen first overall 11 times, nearly half the total drafts in that period.

Why is this Happening?

Several factors contribute to this shift. This year’s draft was notably weak overall and particularly lacking in high school talent. The pandemic also pushed many top prospects towards college since they couldn’t be properly scouted during high school. Additionally, reducing the draft to 20 rounds and limiting minor league jobs have encouraged more players to continue their education.

Furthermore, motivations on both sides favor college over high school. Top college programs now have cutting-edge technology for player tracking and development and can pay top coaches better than minor league positions, providing pro-level instruction. For players, the NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals offer financial incentives that make college more attractive, allowing institutions like LSU to retain top talents like Paul Skenes and Tommy White with substantial compensation and support.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired super-utility man Cavan Biggio in a trade with Toronto, following the Blue Jays designating him for assignment last week.

In return, the Blue Jays received right-handed reliever Braydon Fisher, who has been playing between Double-A and Triple-A this season.

Following the acquisition, the Dodgers optioned outfielder Miguel Vargas to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Vargas had appeared in eight games, hitting .250 with three doubles, one home run, and four RBIs.

Biggio’s Move

Biggio was in the lineup for the Dodgers’ home game against the Texas Rangers on Wednesday night, playing third base and batting ninth.

“To have a team like the Dodgers pick me up after my time in Toronto, where I spent so many years and built so many relationships, and playing against this team about a month and a half ago, is very special. I’m very fortunate and grateful to be here,” Biggio said.

Biggio, 29, was removed from the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster last week after struggling in the first third of the season, hitting .200/.323/.291 with two home runs in 131 plate appearances for Toronto, which holds a 33-34 record and occupies third place in the American League East.

“A lot of emotions that I sat and went through and processed,” Biggio said. “I put myself in a good position to make my next step forward being here, so I’m excited about it.”

Blue Jays manager John Schneider commented, “I think it’s good for Cavan. I was pretty sure he’d land on his feet. It’s tough to have him leave.”

Primarily a second baseman, Biggio has also played first, third, and right field this season. He joins a Dodgers team holding a 7½-game lead in the National League West but struggling to get offensive production from Chris Taylor, Gavin Lux, and Kiké Hernández. The team is also missing third baseman Max Muncy, who is on the injured list with a strained oblique.

“I just want to be a good piece for this team and, hopefully, be the last team standing at the end of the year,” Biggio said.

Biggio’s Background

Biggio debuted in 2019 and, along with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, was one of three sons of longtime major leaguers expected to form the core of a rising Blue Jays team. He hit 16 home runs in 100 games his rookie season and posted a .375 on-base percentage in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, positioning himself as a foundational element at second base.

Injuries limited Biggio in subsequent years, and he lost playing time this season to Davis Schneider and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. With the Blue Jays struggling offensively, they designated him for assignment to make room for Spencer Horwitz, who has started all four games at second since his recall. Biggio has one season of club control beyond this year and will be eligible for free agency after 2025.

Biggio’s father, Craig, accumulated 3,060 hits over 20 seasons with the Houston Astros. The younger Biggio fondly recalled a visit to Dodger Stadium with his dad.

“I don’t think I was allowed on the field, but I remember having a Dodger Dog or two,” he said. “The only thing I remember is Shawn Green was on the team.”

Does Miguel Vargas have a future with the Dodgers?

Last season, the Dodgers intended for Vargas to assume the role of their everyday second baseman, but he never fully secured the position.

Some of that was attributed to getting hit by a pitch during Spring Training and again early in the year, along with defensive growing pains while adjusting to a new position. Vargas’ struggles ultimately led to his demotion to Oklahoma City during the All-Star break.

He remained in Triple-A to finish the year and began this season with Oklahoma City. Vargas was added to the Dodgers roster just last month when Max Muncy landed on the 10-day injured list with a strained right oblique.

The Dodgers optioned Miguel Vargas to Triple-A Oklahoma City to make room for Cavan Biggio on their active roster before Wednesday’s game against the Texas Rangers

While there doesn’t appear to be a role for Vargas with the Dodgers at present, he could factor more prominently in their outfield next season and beyond. Another possibility is that the former top prospect becomes a trade chip, similar to Michael Busch.

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Statcast has introduced a groundbreaking bat-tracking leaderboard on Baseball Savant, revolutionizing how hitter performance is measured. Among the array of new statistics available, bat speed emerges as a crucial metric, gauging the velocity of the bat’s sweet spot upon contact with the ball. This metric holds particular significance for power hitters, as it directly impacts exit velocity and, consequently, fly-ball distance.

The Technology

Renowned physicist Alan Nathan underscores the importance of bat speed, noting its direct correlation to exit velocity. Each additional mile per hour of bat speed translates to a 1.2 mph increase in exit velocity, potentially adding six feet to fly-ball distance, particularly at optimal launch angles.

Utilizing the Hawk-Eye tracking system, which deploys 12 cameras around every major league stadium, including high-speed cameras operating at 300 frames per second, MLB meticulously refined its bat-tracking model over two years before releasing it on its Statcast platform. By measuring swings using the sweet spot about 6 inches below the bat’s head, MLB captures every hitter’s swing objectively, providing a wealth of data for analysis.

King of Speed

When Statcast emerged in 2015, thrusting exit velocity into baseball’s forefront, Giancarlo Stanton, then of the Miami Marlins, dominated nearly every leaderboard. That season, of the 12 balls hit at least 117 mph, nine belonged to Stanton, with one each from Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, and Carlos González.

The now New York Yankees hitter, Stanton’s bat-speed figures still hold up. His average swing velocity hovers around 80.6 mph, almost 3 mph faster than the next contender, Pittsburgh Pirates’ shortstop Oneil Cruz. Notably, Stanton maintains a consistently rapid swing pace, with over 98% of his swings clocking above 75 mph, far surpassing his peers.

Additionally, Stanton ranks near the top in swing length, trailing only Baez. Standing tall at 6-foot-6, it’s no surprise that Stanton’s swing spans an impressive 8.4 feet.

However, as Stanton’s recent struggles highlight, sheer exit velocity or bat speed alone doesn’t guarantee success. Despite boasting the hardest-hit ball of the MLB season at 119.9 mph and leading in average exit velocity on his hardest-hit balls, Stanton’s overall performance has been only slightly above league average, with a batting line of .230/.283/.452.

The takeaway: While having the fastest swing is impressive, it’s clear that success at the plate involves more than just raw power.

On the Flip Side

On the opposite end of the spectrum lies San Diego Padres’ artisan Luis Arráez, whose slow bat speed of 62.4 mph earns him a new distinction in baseball: the slowest bat in the league. Arráez trails behind the next slowest hitter, Cleveland Guardians’ outfielder Steven Kwan, by 2 mph, showcasing a unique approach to thriving in Major League Baseball without elite bat speed.

Arráez and Kwan exemplify the controlled, short swings that consistently make solid contact. Arráez’s swing covers just 5.9 feet, while Kwan’s extends to 6.4 feet. Joining them in the category of sub-68-mph bat speed and sub-6.4-foot swing length are Milwaukee Brewers’ second baseman Brice Turang (128 OPS+), Yankees outfielder Alex Verdugo (107), and Toronto Blue Jays’ DH Justin Turner (111), all of whom contribute significantly offensively.

Some may argue that their success is despite their swings, but perhaps it’s time to recognize that their hitting prowess is intertwined with their unique approach. Arráez leads MLB by making solid contact on 43.9% of his swings. This metric is determined by comparing bat speed and pitch speed to determine the maximum exit velocity, with a ball considered squared up if it reaches at least 80% of the peak velocity. 

When hitters square up the ball, they boast an impressive .372 batting average and slug .659. In contrast, when they fail to square up, their average drops to .127, with a meager .144 slugging percentage. Therefore, players like Arráez and Kwan, despite not possessing immense power, deserve recognition for their mastery of the art of hitting.

The Hardest Hitters

AL East

Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (75.6 mph)

While Guerrero’s traditional stats may suggest a downturn in 2024, with his slugging percentage (.390) and OPS (.753) potentially hitting career lows, his bat speed hints at a comeback. Averaging 75.6 mph (14th in MLB), Guerrero ranks impressively in metrics like xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, indicating that his performance might be better than it appears in Toronto.

NL East

Phillies: Kyle Schwarber (77.0 mph)

Known for his boom-or-bust hitting style, Schwarber’s average bat speed ranks third in MLB, trailing only Stanton and Cruz. With a hard-swing rate of 73.9%, he consistently delivers powerful contact, evident in his nine homers for the Philadelphia team. While unconventional for a leadoff hitter, Schwarber’s success speaks for itself, ranking second in MLB with 11 “swords” behind Zach Neto.

AL Central

Tigers: Javier Báez (75.4 mph)

Báez boasts the longest swing among MLB hitters, spanning 8.7 feet, yet he holds the fastest swing speed among Detroit’s roster. Despite a high chase rate (44.7%), Báez manages to swiftly connect with the ball, with 57.4% of his swings categorized as fast, showcasing his ability to make quick contact.

NL Central

Pirates: Oneil Cruz (77.7 mph)

Cruz’s exceptional bat speed places him second in MLB, just behind Stanton, showcasing his prowess at the plate. As a towering 6-foot-7 shortstop, Cruz leads his fellow Pirates teammate Rowdy Tellez by a significant margin in bat speed. Supported by a 73.5% fast swing rate, Cruz consistently crushes the ball, boasting the hardest-hit ball (122.4 mph) of the Statcast era (since 2015).

AL West

Angels: Jo Adell (76.3 mph)

Once hailed as the Angels’ top prospect for his blend of power and speed, Adell is starting to showcase his potential in his fifth MLB season. With 64.7% of his swings surpassing 75 mph, Adell ranks among the top 10 in fast swing rate, demonstrating his evolving offensive prowess.

NL West

Giants: Matt Chapman (76.9 mph)

While not fitting the modern power hitter mold, Chapman consistently ranks among the top hitters in hard-hit rate. His fourth-highest average bat speed among MLB qualifiers, behind Stanton, Cruz, and Schwarber, highlights his ability to generate impressive contact. Chapman’s presence near the top of the leaderboard speaks volumes about his hitting prowess and consistency.

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